|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Comparison Of E.L. Live
Births To Kindergarten Enrollment |
|
|
Projecting Kindergarten
from births: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Actual Births |
|
Actual Kindergarten |
|
|
B-YEAR |
E.L.BIRTHS |
K-YEAR |
|
% Increase |
|
2 Progression Factors: |
|
|
1998 |
155 |
2003 |
174 |
12% |
|
Actuals: |
|
|
|
1999 |
133 |
2004 |
173 |
30% |
|
5 year average |
|
|
|
2000 |
154 |
2005 |
176 |
14% |
|
of actual Kindergarten |
|
|
|
2001 |
132 |
2006 |
185 |
40% |
|
enrollments. |
|
|
|
2002 |
134 |
2007 |
183 |
37% |
|
|
|
5 YR AVE. |
142 |
|
178 |
26% |
Low Proj. |
|
Projections: |
|
|
|
Actual
Births |
|
Projected Kindergarten |
|
|
Actual births X |
|
|
2003 |
146 |
2008 |
183 |
26% |
|
5 year average increase. |
|
|
2004 |
161 |
2009 |
202 |
26% |
|
This is used in school |
|
|
2005 |
151 |
2010 |
190 |
26% |
|
districts showing aggressive growth. |
|
|
2006 |
n/a |
2011 |
|
26% |
|
|
2007 |
n/a |
2012 |
|
26% |
|
|
AVERG |
153 |
|
192 |
26% |
High Proj |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Results: |
|
|
Two different ways of predicting
kindergarten enrollment. |
|
|
By using 2 ways, one can obtain
"actual" and "projected" formula variables for predicting
enrollments. |
|
|
For every 100 births in East
Longmeadow, by the time they enroll in kindergarten (age 5) we |
|
|
enroll 117 kindergarten students due
to town growth and migration. |
|
|
|
pg 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|